电网主设备经济退役点研究.pdf

谢宁，王承民，肖定矗，宋枭楠 (上海交通大学，上海市200240) 摘要：提出了一种能定量确定电网主设备经济退役点的方法。首先假设设备的累计失效概率符合三参数威布尔分 布，构建设备失效模型；其次通过最小二乘法和最大相关系数优化法确定分布参数，由此得到设备的失效率；最后假设 运维成本与失效率成正比，在时问一成本坐标系上同时画出运维成本曲线和退役成本曲线，其交点即为设备最佳退役 时问。最后以sF。断路器为例，描述了如何使用该方法确定电网主设备的经济退役点。 关键词：设备退役；失效率；威布尔分布 EconomicTimeof Disposal PrimaryElectricityEquipments XIE Xiaonan Ning，WANGChengmin，XIAODingyao，SONG 200240，China) (ShanghaiJiaotongUniversity，Shanghai ABSTRACT：This an forthe determinationofeconomic timeof paperproposedapproach quantitative disposal primary failuremodeof wasconstructedunderthe thatthe electricityequipments．Firstly，theequipments assumption failure couldbedescribed Weibull distribution were probability bythree—parameterdistribution．Secondly，theparameters determinedtheleast methodandthemaximumcorrelationcoefficient astoobtainthe by square optimizationmethod，SO failurerateof thatthe costwas tothefailure equipments．Thirdly，withassumingoperation—maintenanceproportional rate， theeconomic timeofthe wastheintersectionofthe costcurveandthe disposal equipments disposal costcurveinthesametime—costcoordinate circuitbreakeras describedhow system．Finally，takingSF6 example，thispaper tousethismethodtodeterminetheeconomictimeof disposal primaryelectricityequipments． distribution KEYWORDS：equipmentdisposal；failurerate；Weibull 中图分类号：F40761 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1000—7229(2014)06—0165—04 DOI-10 1000