球场观众暴力的险管理研究.doc

2008年国家体育总局体育哲学社会科学研究一般项目 批准号：1254SS08072 球场观众暴力的风险管理研究 （研究报告） 课题主持人： 石 岩 课题组成员： 吴 洋 赵 阳 宋洲洋 成果完成单位：山西大学 2009年10月 摘要：本研究从风险的角度对球场观众暴力进行探讨，构建球场观众暴力风险发生模型，并在此基础上对我国球场观众暴力风险管理体系进行研究。研究表明：球场观众暴力属于大型社会活动风险具有客观性、突发性；球场观众暴力风险构成要素包括球场观众暴力风险因素、事故和损失；球场观众暴力风险发生模型基于球场观众风险事件链、计划行为理论及球场观众暴力风险放大理论所构建。风险事件链理论解释球场观众暴力风险的发生过程，计划行为理论对球场观众从心理变化到行为发生进行理论阐释，风险社会放大理论则解释了球场观众暴力的升级过程；我国球场观众暴力风险管理理论包括风险识别、风险评估和风险应对三方面。方法主要采用列表法和故障树分析法球场观众暴力风险源包括环境风险、管理风险以及比赛风险。为了对球场观众暴力进行有效的风险识别，在确定风险源的基础上，按照风险检查表的要求编制《球场观众暴力风险检查表》球场观众暴力的风险评估主要采用《球场观众暴力风险评估表》和帕累托分析法。通过对球场观众暴力风险发生的可能性、严重性和可控性进行评估，了解各个风险因素的特征。用帕累托分析法对球场观众暴力的风险进行评估，以便有针对性地对主要风险因素进行控制球场观众暴力的风险应对体系主要包括球场观众暴力风险控制手段的选择和实施两部分。球场观众暴力风险管理的研究，为进一步进行实证研究提供理论依据。 Study on Risk Management of the Field Abstract: From the view of risk, the field spectator violence was discussed. Based on the Transmitting Model, this paper made study on the management system of the risk of field spectator violence. The result showed that firstly the field spectator violence belonged to large-scale social events which had distinctive features such as objectivity, sudden, dynamic and continuity. Secondly, the risk of field spectator violence was constituted with risk factors of field spectator violence, accident and loss. Thirdly, the risk transmitting model of field spectator violence was constructed with field spectator violence event chain which analyzed the process of field spectator violence. TPB explained the process about spectators’ psychological changes. Then the theory of social amplification of risk explained the upgrade process of field spectator violence. In the end, the risk management of field spectator violence included risk identification, risk assessment and risk treatment. The risk treatment system could be analyzed from the selection and the implementation of the means of field spectator violence risk control. The purpose of this dissertation was to provide a theoretical basis for the empirical study. Key words: field spectator violence; model; risk ide