德意志银行-美国原油-European Integrated Oil Large Cap E＆P 2Q Preview，Feels like Déjà vu All Over Again-20170718-DeutscheBank.pdf

Integrated Oil/Large Cap E& Deutsche Bank Markets Research North America Industry Date United States Integrated Oil/Large 18 July 2017 Industrials Integrated Oil Cap E& Recommendation Change 2Q Preview: Feels like Déjà vu All Over Again Ryan Todd It Feels Like We've Been Here Before Twelve months since investors started focusing on accelerating activity into a Research Analyst recovery, we head into 2Q results once again focused on a challenging crude +1-212-250-8342 outlook and the likely need to reduce activity levels into 2018. We see the market as oversupplied again in 2018, even in the event of a full-year extension of current David Fernandez OPEC cuts, that US supply growth must be moderated, and that only a sub-$40/ Research Associate bbl price will prove sufficient. With quarterly calls likely to focus on 2018 activity +1-212-250-3191 levels, we look at estimated spending, activity and growth trends for companies in 2018-2020 across various price decks. We also downgrade OAS and QEP from Joe McKay Buy to Hold, given headwinds of a likely move in crude into the $30’s by early Research Associate 2018, and maintain a preference for core low-cost producers/assets: PXD, CXO, +1-212-250-5717 EOG, and DVN (higher beta option). For refiners, the group remains a refuge in energy despite steady downward revisions to estimates, with some concern on Koosh Patel the sustainability of cash return to shareholders. Preference for TSO in 2