第十一讲 国家风险评估和管理.ppt

第十一讲 国家风险评估及管理 Chapter Objectives To identify the common factors used by MNCs to measure a country’s political risk and financial risk; To explain the techniques used to measure country risk; and To explain how MNCs use the assessment of country risk when making financial decisions. Why Country Risk Analysis Is Important １.Definition of Political risk is the risk that the business environment in a host country will change unexpectedly or is the potentially adverse impact of a country’s environment on an MNC’s cash flows(国家风险指东道国的商业环境发生非预期的变化，从而对跨国公司的价值产生影响。） 2. Some Adverse Impacts: a. A terrorist attack b. A major labor strike in an industry c. A political crisis due to a scandal within a country d. Concern about a country’s banking system that may cause a major outflow of funds e. The imposition of trade restrictions on imports Why Country Risk Analysis Is Important ３.Country risk analysis can be used: to monitor countries where the MNC is currently doing business; as a screening device to avoid conducting business in countries with excessive risk; and to revise its investment or financing decisions in light of recent events. the companies that assess country risk. Political risk （政治风险） is the risk that a sovereign host government will unexpectedly change the rules of the game under which businesses operate Political risks arise because of unexpected changes in the political environment within a host country or in the relationship of a host country to another country. Financial risk （财务风险） refers more generally to unexpected events in a country’s financial, economic, or business life Financial risk is determined by a host of financial and economic factors, some of which are related to local political risk. Political Risk Factors A. Attitude of consumers in the host country Some consumers are very loyal to locally manufactured products. B. Actions of host government The host government may impose special requirements or taxes, restrict fund transfers, an