CS Draft White Paper Presentation CALMAC：C S草案白皮书报告向中国反洗钱监测分析中心.ppt

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CS Draft White Paper Presentation CALMAC：C S草案白皮书报告向中国反洗钱监测分析中心.ppt

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CS Draft White Paper Presentation CALMAC：C S草案白皮书报告向中国反洗钱监测分析中心

June 24th, 2005 Codes Standards Savings Estimates - Public Workshop Douglas Mahone, HMG Summary of CS Savings Changes Due to New Findings for 2005-06 Standards Review: CS Savings Factors First year savings per measure Attribution – % credited to CS program Normal code adoption timeframe Natural market adoption rate Non-compliance rate Last two studied by Quantec Review: CS Ex Ante Estimates Natural Market Adoption Rate Bass Curve vs. Straight Line Delphi Process Using Experts Recruited industry experts Used web-based tool to draw curves Second round – each compared to average Curve based on: Initial year Maximum penetration Leading behavior – consumer’s own choice Following behavior – influence of others Concerns – maybe nobody knows the market Delphi Process Using Experts Example: Res. Hardwired Lighting Natural Adoption Results Non-Compliance Rate Appliance Standards Surveyed suppliers and available units Building Standards Reviewed plan check documents Confirmed with site visits Did not attempt time series Each measure was a different problem Non-Compliance Rates Found Change of Overall Compliance Rate Changes in Savings Results – Compared to Utility Goals Addition of Three Title 20 Measures Changes for savings spreadsheet Outstanding CS Issues Getting evaluators to observe for attribution Appliance Standards – separate treatment for new and existing buildings Remove measure life adjustment Further improvements to methods tested by Quantec study Evaluation risk for compliance enhancement studies Policy issues – length of savings stream, 50% discount of 2005 CS savings References Quantec Study: Report CPUC Program No. 1134-04:Statewide Codes and Standards Market Adoption and Noncompliance Rates CALMAC Study ID: SCE0224.01 (search: quantec) CS Savings Spreadsheet Report Update to be posted shortly Original: CALMAC Study ID: SCE0241.01 (search: mahone) * Douglas MahoneHeschong Mahone Group Inc. The default non-compliance rate was 30% for all measures Ove