综观伊拉克时机.pptx

OVERVIEW OF THE IRAQ OPPORTUNITYDoing Business in IraqAmman, 5th June 2003Achmed Al-ShahrabaniMcKinsey Company, Inc.AGENDAOverview IraqEconomic scenarios for IraqRequired investments AGENDAOverview IraqEconomic scenarios for IraqRequired investments The majority of Iraq is characterized by desertOVERVIEW IRAQI GEOGRAPHYGeography and climateInfrastructureCar transport39,000 km paved roads765,000 privately registered passenger cars266,000 privately registered trucksAirMajor airports in Baghdad, Basra and MosulThree major railway routesBaghdad–Kirkuk–IrbilBaghdad–Mosul–YurubiyahBaghdad–Maagal–Umm QasrTelecom3% penetration, no mobile networkUtilities 250 water treatment facilitiesPower generation capacity of 9500 (pre 1990), currently at 1800MWTotal area: 437,000 m2Limited arable landArable land: 11%Permanent crops: 1%Desert: 88%Largest governatesBaghdad (8.0m)Nineveh (2.1m)Basra (2.0m)Varying climate (Baghdad)Summer temp: 35-50oWinter temp: 5-15oRainfall: 155mm/year Source: Country Watch, CIA world fact bookIraqi population amounts to more than 24 millionsDEVELOPMENT IRAQI POPULATION 1980 TO 2002MillionKey facts50% of population younger than 16 years28% of population is labor forceApproximately 51% males75% of population resides in urban areasThere is an estimated 1m–2m Iraqi’s living in exileFertility rate 4.5–5 children per womenAdult literacy at 54%1.5-2.5 million foreign workersCAGR 3%198019851990199520002002 Source: World outlook, EIU country risk report IraqShia Muslims form Iraq’s ethnic majorityESTIMATEPOPULATION SIZE BY ETHNIC GROUP%100% = 24.2mOthers4Kurds – Sunni Muslims22Arabs- Shia Muslims6212Arabs – Sunni MuslimsSource: CIA world fact bookAn increasing number of children does not receive formal educationESTIMATEEDUCATION ENROLMENT RATIO FOR ALL AGES* - 1980 VS. 1998Adult literacy at 54% (vs. 75% in Iran* From 6 to 23 years Source: EIU country pro 2002Iraq has one of the largest natural oil and gas reserves…ESTIMATEOVERVIEW OF IRAQ’S NATURAL