IMF-澳大利亚：精选问题（英）-2024.1.docx

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IMF-澳大利亚：精选问题（英）-2024.1.docx

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January2024

AUSTRALIA

SELECTEDISSUES

IMFCountryReportNo.24/12

ThisSelectedIssuespaperonAustraliawaspreparedbyastaffteamoftheInternationalMonetaryFundasbackgrounddocumentationfortheperiodicconsultationwiththemembercountry.ItisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwascompletedonDecember6,2023.

Copiesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfrom

InternationalMonetaryFund?PublicationServicesPOBox92780?Washington,D.C.20090Telephone:(202)623-7430?Fax:(202)623-7201

E-mail:publications@imf.orgWeb:

InternationalMonetaryFundWashington,D.C.

?2024InternationalMonetaryFund

December4,2023

AUSTRALIA

SELECTEDISSUES

ApprovedBy

AsiaandPacific

Department

PreparedByAbdullahAlnasser,PragyanDeb,andNourTawk(allAPD).

CONTENTS

MACROECONOMICIMPACTOFMIGRATION 2

RecentTrendsinMigration 2

MigrationinAustraliainanInternationalContext 4

MigrantCharacteristicsandLaborMarketOutcomes 5

ImpactofMigration 7

Conclusion 15

FIGURES

EffectsofMigrationInflowShocksonOutputandLabourOutcomes 13

EffectsofMigrationInflowShocksonInflationandHousingPrices 14

References 20

ANNEX

EffectsofMigrationShocksonSelectedMacroeconomicOutcomes–RobustnessChecks 16

AUSTRALIA

MACROECONOMICIMPACTOFMIGRATION1

MigrationinAustraliahashistoricallybeenasignificantsourceofpopulationgrowth,withathirdofthepopulationbornoverseas.Migrationissettobecomeevenmoreimportantasthepopulationnaturalgrowthratedeclines.AustraliaattractssomeofthebesteducatedmigrantstoOECDcountrieswhoaremostlyskilledworkersandstudents,withhighlaborforceparticipationratesandlowunemployment.Disentanglingmacroeconomiceffectsofmigrationfromdriversofmigrationischallenging,butwithinAustralia,migrationsurgeshavehistoricallybeenassociatedwithhighergrowthandfavorablelabormarketoutcomes,withnegligible