石化行业2024年市场前景及投资研究报告：与不确定性共存,可编辑培训课件.pptx

2

3

4:JKempEnergy,CFTC

2018GAMMA5:bloomberg

OPEC:bloomberg

11TI71116WTIBRENTcontangoOPEC340/(KRG)OPECOPEC11267:windOPECKpler

11171118OPEC1126OPECAverageProjections2023OPEC2000–20192020202120222024FISCALBREAKEVENOILPRICE1OilexportersAlgeria102.151.983.285.675.8...89.666.3111.457.9134.8259.453.3183.562.452.076.746.583.632.353.185.763.6133.6278.366.395.563.285.162.144.785.837.355.1112.477.0126.2351.775.899.870.764.472.244.880.938.155.6111.978.2129.1375.476.483.966.362.266.441.575.140.054.8100/+AzerbaijanBahrain1126113.7546.556.6Iran100/IraqKazakhstanKuwait2192.176.246.871.769.145.180.4...Libya141.786.4OmanQatar49.3SaudiArabiaTurkmenistanUnitedArabEmirates76.340.51126OPEC2024H149.951.7OilexportersAlgeria85.257.452.540.465.386.737.854.371.350.655.4...80.264.884.636.753.780.537.158.075.643.550.825.918.579.469.534.644.556.1123.933.057.275.743.457.121.716.875.285.939.448.875.765.843.486.085.146.352.731.436.874.260.440.547.267.4102.445.161.564.140.254.730.739.483.563.145.744.176.596.246.255.562.242.757.031.835.3AzerbaijanBahrainIranOPECIraq2024KazakhstanKuwaitLibyaOmanQatarSaudiArabiaTurkmenistanUnitedArabEmiratesOPEC45.78:IMF

9windbloomberg

2022EIA202310:bloombergGasBuddy

IEA1012IEA121-11811IEAEIA

2001Q3-20011-2008Q2402-2009Q42010Q1-2011700%2008Q3-2009Q13-2014Q22014Q2-2016Q120142016Q2-2018Q3OPEC2018Q4-2019Q42020Q1-2021Q4Q3Q42022Q1Q1Q2OPEC+2021

美国CPI下降时间段1983-04～1983-071986-01～1986-121990-11～1992-011996-12～1998-022001-05～2002-012003-03～2004-022006-06～2006-102008-07～2009-072010-01～2010-062011-09～2014-022014-06～2015-012020-01～2020-052022-06～2022-10美国CPI下降时长3个月WTI油价走势小幅上升先下降后上升下降WTI实际价格29.85～3219.66～10.4～1830.9～18.9WTI累计涨跌幅2.2%11个月14个月14个月8个月11个月4个月12个月5个月29个月7个月-1.7%-12.0%-10.4%-8.9%下降下降小幅上升下降25.92～15.528.37～19.4831.04～36.1671.03～59.50134.02～64.5974.48～84.84～75.675.1%-11.5%-69.4%1.2%下降先上升后回落先涨后跌，高位震荡85.54～106.3～100.7915.3%下降下降下降105.15～47.3457.55～29.66111.79～86.25-57.8%-27.9%-25.5%4个月4个月13:

宏观如果是稳