J.P. 摩根-美股-航空与航空租赁业-资产负债表之战：市场预期大幅下调，但流动性似乎比市场情绪暗示的更为强劲-2020.3.16-33页.pdf

North America Corporate Research 16 March 2020 Battle of the Balance Sheets Estimates slashed, but liquidity appears more robust than sentiment suggests. Thoughts on Lessors. We believe the collapse in air travel demand has the potential to materially reshape global Airlines & Aircraft Leasing/Equity aviation, meaningfully more than the events of 9/11. At the core of our view is the fact that Jamie Baker AC North America drives just one-fifth of global activity, but generates two-thirds of global (1-212) 622-6713 profits. Like the virus itself, demand destruction will exact the greatest toll on the weak and jamie.baker@ infirm. While this in no way immunizes our coverage universe, it does imply that airline Bloomberg JPMA BAKER <GO> failures may solely occur elsewhere, thereby paving the way for higher international Abdul Tambal, CFA margins for the North American Big Four (DAL, UAL, AAL, AC) as the crisis fades. But (1-212) 622-0302 let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Airline stock picking and credit selection has grown abdul.tambal@ increasingly complex, as securities must increasingly discount scenarios previously Airlines & Aircraft Leasing/Credit considered unthinkable (such as prohibiting healthy Europeans from entering the U.S., or Mark Streeter, CFA AC the partial or complete shutdown of the U.S. airspace, a scenario we can’t rule out). What