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了解中国的崛起演讲稿
The world is changing with really remarkable speed. If
you look at the chart at the top here, youll see that in
2025, these Goldman Sachs projections suggest that the
Chinese economy will be almost the same size as the American
economy. And if you look at the chart for 2050, its
projected that the Chinese economy will be twice the size
of the American economy, and the Indian economy will be
almost the same size as the American economy. And we should
bear in mind here that these projections were drawn up
before the Western financial crisis.
A couple of weeks ago, I was looking at the latest
projection by BNP Paribas for when China will have a larger
economy than the United States. Goldman Sachs projected
2027. The post-crisis projection is 2020. Thats just a
decade away. China is going to change the world in two
fundamental respects. First of all, its a huge developing
country with a population of 1.3 billion people, which has
been growing for over 30 years at around 10 percent a year.
And within a decade, it will have the largest economy in
the world. Never before in the modern era has the largest
economy in the world been that of a developing country,
页 1 第
rather than a developed country. Secondly, for the first
time in the modern era, the dominant country in the world
-- which I think is what China will become -- will be not
from the West and from very, very different civilizational
roots.
Now I know its a widespread assumption in the West that,
as countries modernize, they also Westernize. This is an
illusion. Its an assumption that modernity is a product
simply of competition, markets and technology. It is not;
it is also shaped equally by history and culture. China is
not like the West, and it will not become like the West.
It will remain in very fundamental respects very different.
Now the big question here is obviously, how do we make sense
of China? How do we try to understand what China is? And
the problem
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