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1 June 2020
Global Research
Global Marine Sector
Global Marine Sector
Global Marine SectorUBS Evidence Lab inside: Is the green shipping theme over?Yong-Suk Son, CFAAnalyst +82-2-3702 8804How do IMO 2020 and GHG rules add up amid the COVID-19 shock?The recent UBS Evidence Lab survey of shipping executives shows compliance with IMO 2020 is high. But the anticipated windfall for related industries has not occurred, given demand destruction by the COVID-19 impact. This does not bode well for refiners whose benefits were mostly expected in 2020, but share prices reflect this. We are positive on quality Asian yards and European capital goods, given potential benefits from upcoming greenhouse gas (GHG) rules and new orders from 2021 as markets emerge from lockdowns, which the market has not factored in. We favour KSOE most.COVID-19 impact and NOPEC overshadow the effects of IMO 2020The survey shows
Global Marine Sector
UBS Evidence Lab inside: Is the green shipping theme over?
Yong-Suk Son, CFA
Analyst +82-2-3702 8804
How do IMO 2020 and GHG rules add up amid the COVID-19 shock?
The recent UBS Evidence Lab survey of shipping executives shows compliance with IMO 2020 is high. But the anticipated windfall for related industries has not occurred, given demand destruction by the COVID-19 impact. This does not bode well for refiners whose benefits were mostly expected in 2020, but share prices reflect this. We are positive on quality Asian yards and European capital goods, given potential benefits from upcoming greenhouse gas (GHG) rules and new orders from 2021 as markets emerge from lockdowns, which the market has not factored in. We favour KSOE most.
COVID-19 impact and NOPEC overshadow the effects of IMO 2020
The survey shows 90% of the fleet would be compliant with IMO 2020 by end-2020 from 80% currently (UBS-e 85%), as an average 79% of ports are enforcing the new rule. But the impact of IMO 2020 on refiners and scrubber producers has been upended by the shock to oil
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