宏观经济学（2008CCER，鄢萍）Part 4-1.ppt

Chapter 1 The Science of Macroeconomics Learning objectives This chapter introduces you to the issues macroeconomists study the tools macroeconomists use some important concepts in macroeconomic analysis Example 1:How bad is inflation in Zimbabwe? Zimbabwe has been tormented this entire decade by both deep recession and high inflation. The government said it would triple the salaries of soldiers and teachers. But this will only worsen inflation, for printing too many worthless dollars. Zimbabwe fell into hyperinflation after the government began seizing commercial farms in about 2000. Foreign investors fled, manufacturing ground to a halt, goods and foreign currency needed to buy imports fell into short supply and prices shot up. Example 2:Unemployment rate in Europe VS US Eurozone unemployment stables at 7.3%. Example 2:Unemployment rate in Europe VS US US unemployment is about 5%. Example 3:Subprime crisis (次贷危机） 收入并不稳定甚至根本没有收入的人，他们怎么买房呢?因为信用等级达不到标准，他们就被定义为次级贷款者。 在房价上涨预期和贷款公司许下的优惠贷款利率的诱惑下，他们选择了贷款买房。 ? 贷款公司找到投行，通过发行和销售CDO（Collateralized Debt Obligation，债务抵押债券)，让债券的持有人来分担房屋贷款的风险。? 投行又怎样卖出高风险的普通CDO呢？于是投行找到了对冲基金。 Example 3:Subprime crisis (次贷危机） 对冲基金在世界范围内找利率最低的银行借来钱，然后大举买入这部分普通CDO债券。 对冲基金又把手里的CDO债券抵押给银行，换得10倍的贷款，然后继续追着投行买普通 CDO。 2001年末，美国的房地产一路飙升。于是贷款公司、投行、银行、对冲基金人人都赚钱， 投行除了继续买对冲基金之外，他们又想出了一个新产品，就叫CDS (Credit Default Swap，信用违约交换) 。每年从CDO里面拿出一部分钱作为保金，白送给保险公司，但是将来出了风险，大家一起承担。 Example 3:Subprime crisis (次贷危机） 时间走到了2006年年底，风光了整整5年的美国房地产终于从顶峰重重摔了下来，这条食物链也终于开始断裂。因为房价下跌，优惠贷款利率的时限到了之后，先是普通民众无法偿还贷款，然后贷款公司倒闭，对冲基金大幅亏损，继而连累保险公司和贷款的银行，花旗、摩根相继发布巨额亏损报告，同时投资对冲基金的各大投行也纷纷亏损，然后股市大跌，民众普遍亏钱，无法偿还房贷的民众继续增多……最终，美国次贷危机爆发。  Example 3:Subprime crisis (次贷危机） Borrowing under a securitization structure Example 4:US social security budget deficit President Bush and Vice President Cheney have told audiences?that Social Security faces an $11 trillion shortfall if nothing is done to fix the current system.? Example 4:US social security budget deficit The graph shows num