《宏观经济学-刘雅南课件》chap16.ppt

Figure 16-1, p.469. The historical pattern: the debt-GDP ratio rises during wars and falls during peace-time. The exception is the substantial rise that occurred beginning in the early 1980s. Source: same as textbook. * The stock market boom of the latter 1990s created huge capital gains, which helped bring down the budget deficit by increasing revenues. Even if the government budget had been balanced, rapid economic growth from 1995-2000 would still have brought down the debt-GDP ratio. * Early 2000s:In addition, the Medicare prescription drug benefit enacted under President Bush represented a substantial increase in entitlement outlays. 2008-2009 recession: Falling incomes shrank income tax revenues. A fall in spending shrank sales tax revenues. Falling equity prices shrank capital gains tax revenues. Falling property values had a modestly negative impact on property tax revenues: For many houses, assessed values for determining property tax did not fall with market values, as local governments sought to protect a key revenue source. However, many of the underwater homeowners who walked away from their houses stopped paying property taxes. * Before we assess whether the debt is a problem, we first consider whether the standard measures of the debt & deficit are accurate. It turns out they are not, for these four reasons. * * * * * * * * * The traditional view is just the viewpoint embodied in the models that students learned in chapters 3 through 13 of this textbook. This viewpoint is accepted by most mainstream economists. * * * * * * The material on this slide is related to the material on the slide after the following one, entitled Other Perspectives: Debt and Politics. If you wish to save time, you can combine the two. * * * * This slide and the next correspond to the case study “the Benefits of Indexed Bonds” that closes Chapter 15 (see pp.451-452). It might be worth taking a moment to help your students understand w