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13 March 2020
Equity Research
Global
Global Equity Strategy
When is the low, and how big is the V?
Investment Strategy | Strategy
We believe equity markets will be significantly above current levels by year-end, but we have not
seen all the conditions required for a trough. Of the factors we are monitoring, we have yet to Research Analysts
see the following three :
Andrew Garthwaite
A peak in daily infection rates (in the SARS crisis, markets troughed a week later); 44 20 7883 6477
A trough in PMIs (we think this could happen in May). Global PMIs are already consistent andrew.garthwaite@
with 1% global GDP growth (half of our house view), but we could see PMIs falling to 40- Robert Griffiths
45 in Europe and the US; 44 20 7883 8885
Clear-cut fiscal easing in the US, although this is starting elsewhere (including Europe today). robert.griffiths@
These are the factors we have seen so far that are consistent with a market trough: Nicolas Wylenzek
44 20 7883 6480
Tactical indicators at their most depressed levels on record (having been at a three-year high). nicolas.wylenzek@
Clear-cut monetary response and very loose monetary conditions (and expanding central Mengyuan Yuan
bank balance sheets); 44 20 7888 0368
We have already seen the ‘normal’ market correction (15%) that we would expect when mengyuan.yuan@
the oil price colla
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