全球能源转型展望2021—全球和区域预测至2050-2021.09.pdf

ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK 2021 A global and regional forecast to 2050 DNV Energy Transition Outlook 2021 FOREWORD This is the fifth annual Energy Transition Outlook issued by DNV. For half a decade, we have said, consistently, that the most likely future for the world’s energy system is one that will result in global warming exceeding 2°C by 2100, and that is our conclusion once again this year. The impact of global warming is becoming alarmingly Not everything can be electrified. That is what makes apparent, and I believe there is a widening understand- tackling the hard-to-abate sectors of high heat, aviation, ing of the long-term risks for humanity. However, while shipping and trucking so very urgent. Yet our forecast perceptions may have changed, reality has not. shows that hydrogen enters the picture at scale only in Each year, in the foreword to this Outlook, I have the late 2030s. That is far too late: climate science points stressed the need for governments and companies to to the considerable risks of allowing emissions to take decisive action on climate change. COVID-19 has accumulate before we act. more than demonstrated that governments can act boldly. Yet, from an energy transition perspective, the The verdict is clear: the world needs vastly more green pandemic has been a lost opportunity. Recovery electricity, both direct and indirect, more biofuel, and packages have largely focused on protecting rather more carbon capture and storage on a dramatically than transforming existing industries. There are excep- accelerated timescale.