贸易增长惯性与贸易政策的滞后效应：以出口退税政策为例的研究.pdf

中国科技论文在线 贸易增长惯性与贸易政策的滞后效应：以出 # 口退税政策为例的研究 徐林清，邓丹* 5 （暨南大学经济学院，广州 510632） 摘要：本文探讨贸易体系的惯性属性，分析贸易活动惯性作用的机理及表现形式，并以出口 退税政策为例分析贸易政策变量影响贸易活动的滞后效应。通过构建多项式分布滞后模型来 研究中国的平均出口退税率的变动对中国对美出口（用中国对美的出口增长率来表示）的滞 后影响。实证结果表明，出口退税率对中国对美出口的影响持续 3 个滞后期，且当期的影响 10 比较小，滞后一期和滞后两期的影响比较大，然后在滞后三期时减小，说明贸易惯性在贸易 活动中的存在。 关键词：国际贸易；贸易惯性；贸易政策；滞后效应 中图分类号：F74 15 Trade growth inertia and lagged effects of trade policy: taking export tax rebate policy as an example XU Linqing, DENG Dan (Economy School, Jinan University, GuangZhou 510063) Abstract: This article researches on the properties of the inertia of the trading system, and 20 analyzes the mechanism and manifestations of trade inertia. Taking export tax rebate policy as an example, it also analyzes the lagged effects of the trade policy on trade activities. By constructing a PDL model, the lagged effect, which the changes of China's average export tax rebate rate has had on China's exports to the US, is studied. The empirical results show that the lagged effects of the export tax rebate rate on China's exports to the U.S last 3 periods, and the impact of the current 25 period is relatively small, but the one of the lag first and second period are relatively large, then the one of the lag third reduced, which indicates that the existence of trade inertia in trade activities. Keywords: international trade; trade inertia; trade policy; lagg