基于esda模型的休闲渔业空间分布差异分析.pdf

1基于 ESDA 模型的海洋渔业空间分布差异分析 ——以山东半岛蓝区为例 单春 崔莎莎 中国海洋大学经济学院 摘要：基于探索式空间数据分析（ESDA ）模型研究2003-2014 年山东半岛蓝区的海洋渔业空间分布差异， 运用空间计量模型分析海洋渔业空间分布差异的影响因素，得出结论：①山东半岛蓝区海洋渔业空间分布 全局正相关关系显著，空间分布整体关联性较大，其空间集聚性呈现出先上升后下降的趋势，Moran’s I 指 数在 2007 年达到最大值 0.805 ，后在2014 年达到最小值 0.717 ；②选取 2007 年和 2014 年进行局部相关性 研究，Moran 散点图显示，山东半岛蓝区的海洋渔业大部分存在“高-高”集聚和“低-低”集聚的正相关 模式，LISA 聚集图显示，威海和烟台两市出现显著区域，说明存在显著的正空间效应；③地区 GDP 对海 洋渔业起着负作用，农林牧渔业从业人员、海洋渔业面积、海洋渔业生产力和邻近空间互作效应起着显著 的正作用。 关键词：ESDA 模型；海洋渔业；空间布局；分布差异 Analysis of Spatial Distribution Disparities of Marine Fishery Based on ESDA:Exemplify Shandong Blue Area Abstract:Using the method of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) to analyze the spatial distribution disparities of marine fishery in shandong blue area on 2003-2014,and using spatial econometric model to study the influencing factors of spatial distribution disparities of Marine fisheries.Results showed that:(1)the spatial distribution of marine fishery in shandong blue area has significant positive correlation,spatial distribution of the overall correlation is bigger, its spatial clustering has a trend of rise first and fall then,in 2007, Morans I attain to the maximum value of 0.805, the minimum value of 0.717 in 2014; (2)selecting the year of 2007 and 2014 to study the local correlation,Moran scatter plot shows that the marine fishery of shandong blue area mostly exist high - high” and “ low -low”positive correlation, and LISA gather maps shows that Weihai and Yantai appear significant area,shows a significant positive spatial effect;(3) regional GDP has a negative effect on Marine Fisheries, animal husbandry fishery practitioners, Marine fishery area, Marine fisheries productivity and the adjacent space interaction effect plays a significantly positive role. Key words:ESDA model; marine fishery;spatial arrangement;distribution disparity